This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.
Published | ID | Name | Type | UserRatings | Average | GeekRating | Weight |
2022 | Current | 765 | 8.12 | 6.27 | 2.23 | ||
Estimated | 400 | 7.34 | 5.83 | 2.01 |
To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.
Description |
Your role as criminal mastermind is to recruit a crew of thieves, send them to locations across Europe, and provide them with gear. It's your job to utilize your resources efficiently to steal goods, but being a great mastermind is about more than the things you walk away with. It's the thrill of a well thought-out plan coming together: the set-up, the sting. Properly deploy your thieves and gear to dominate locations, outmaneuver your opponent's plans, and win the night. You've got six rounds to plan and play your cards. Nothing like a tight timeline to up the stakes! |
Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.
Published | ID | Name | Publisher(s) | Designer(s) | Artist(s) | Categories | Families | Mechanics |
2022 | Keymaster Games | Unai Rubio | Josh Emrich | Card Game | Continents: Europe | Area Majority / Influence | ||
Theme: Mystery / Crime | Open Drafting | |||||||
Components: Game Trayz Inside | Set Collection | |||||||
Crowdfunding: Kickstarter | Tug of War | |||||||
Players: Two Player Only Games | ||||||||
For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/328565
For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.
What games are similar to Caper: Europe? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to Caper: Europe. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.
This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).
Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.
The table below displays games with the most similar data to Caper: Europe. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.
Rank | Published | ID | Name | Similarity | GeekRating | Average | Weight | UserRatings |
-- | 2022 | 1.00 | 6.27 | 8.12 | 2.01 | 765 | ||
1 | 2017 | 0.99 | 5.58 | 6.40 | 2.00 | 171 | ||
2 | 2016 | 0.93 | 5.74 | 6.78 | 1.69 | 417 | ||
3 | 2018 | 0.93 | 6.04 | 7.14 | 2.12 | 900 | ||
4 | 2020 | 0.92 | 6.11 | 7.45 | 2.20 | 828 | ||
5 | 2015 | 0.92 | 5.58 | 6.53 | 1.67 | 190 | ||
6 | 2015 | 0.91 | 6.25 | 6.82 | 1.81 | 2,422 | ||
7 | 2016 | 0.89 | 6.61 | 7.18 | 2.00 | 3,542 | ||
8 | 2016 | 0.88 | 5.71 | 6.43 | 2.00 | 520 | ||
9 | 2020 | 0.88 | 5.58 | 7.17 | 81 | |||
10 | 2015 | 0.88 | 7.98 | 8.11 | 2.22 | 73,405 | ||
11 | 1997 | 0.87 | 5.61 | 6.11 | 1.97 | 380 | ||
12 | 2019 | 0.86 | 5.50 | 5.59 | 132 | |||
13 | 2017 | 0.85 | 5.53 | 7.33 | 2.00 | 30 | ||
14 | 2018 | 0.85 | 5.52 | 7.21 | 2.33 | 32 | ||
15 | 2012 | 0.85 | 6.69 | 6.99 | 1.74 | 7,978 | ||
16 | 2009 | 0.85 | 7.39 | 7.50 | 1.48 | 42,805 | ||
17 | 2015 | 0.85 | 5.55 | 7.25 | 2.64 | 79 | ||
18 | 2003 | 0.85 | 5.90 | 6.58 | 1.91 | 1,060 | ||
19 | 2016 | 0.85 | 5.67 | 6.89 | 1.67 | 235 | ||
20 | 2019 | 0.85 | 5.64 | 7.05 | 2.00 | 190 | ||
21 | 2016 | 0.84 | 5.63 | 7.28 | 2.42 | 155 | ||
22 | 2005 | 0.84 | 5.51 | 5.58 | 1.83 | 65 | ||
23 | 2016 | 0.84 | 5.75 | 7.10 | 2.08 | 336 | ||
24 | 2015 | 0.84 | 6.28 | 6.95 | 1.83 | 2,052 | ||
25 | 2016 | 0.83 | 6.38 | 6.81 | 1.53 | 3,708 |
Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.
What games are similar to Caper: Europe while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.
Rank | Published | ID | Name | Score | Similarity | GeekRating | Average | Weight | UserRatings |
-- | 2022 | 6.27 | 1.00 | 6.27 | 8.12 | 2.01 | 765 | ||
1 | 2015 | 6.99 | 0.88 | 7.98 | 8.11 | 2.22 | 73,405 | ||
2 | 2009 | 6.27 | 0.85 | 7.39 | 7.50 | 1.48 | 42,805 | ||
3 | 2016 | 5.87 | 0.89 | 6.61 | 7.18 | 2.00 | 3,542 | ||
4 | 2015 | 5.69 | 0.91 | 6.25 | 6.82 | 1.81 | 2,422 | ||
5 | 2012 | 5.68 | 0.85 | 6.69 | 6.99 | 1.74 | 7,978 | ||
6 | 2020 | 5.65 | 0.92 | 6.11 | 7.45 | 2.20 | 828 | ||
7 | 2018 | 5.59 | 0.93 | 6.04 | 7.14 | 2.12 | 900 | ||
8 | 2017 | 5.55 | 0.99 | 5.58 | 6.40 | 2.00 | 171 | ||
9 | 2019 | 5.52 | 0.79 | 6.97 | 7.63 | 1.80 | 3,992 | ||
10 | 2016 | 5.34 | 0.93 | 5.74 | 6.78 | 1.69 | 417 | ||
11 | 2016 | 5.31 | 0.83 | 6.38 | 6.81 | 1.53 | 3,708 | ||
12 | 2015 | 5.28 | 0.83 | 6.40 | 6.63 | 1.57 | 7,072 | ||
13 | 2015 | 5.27 | 0.84 | 6.28 | 6.95 | 1.83 | 2,052 | ||
14 | 2017 | 5.24 | 0.79 | 6.60 | 6.97 | 1.73 | 5,742 | ||
15 | 2011 | 5.22 | 0.82 | 6.36 | 7.34 | 2.34 | 1,584 | ||
16 | 2015 | 5.12 | 0.92 | 5.58 | 6.53 | 1.67 | 190 | ||
17 | 2016 | 5.11 | 0.82 | 6.22 | 6.71 | 1.46 | 2,751 | ||
18 | 2018 | 5.10 | 0.81 | 6.33 | 7.12 | 2.08 | 1,871 | ||
19 | 2009 | 5.05 | 0.82 | 6.19 | 6.65 | 2.21 | 2,655 | ||
20 | 2016 | 5.05 | 0.88 | 5.71 | 6.43 | 2.00 | 520 | ||
21 | 2010 | 5.03 | 0.78 | 6.42 | 7.00 | 2.35 | 2,746 | ||
22 | 2014 | 5.01 | 0.76 | 6.56 | 6.99 | 1.40 | 4,449 | ||
23 | 2003 | 5.00 | 0.85 | 5.90 | 6.58 | 1.91 | 1,060 | ||
24 | 2018 | 4.93 | 0.80 | 6.19 | 7.23 | 2.30 | 1,264 | ||
25 | 2020 | 4.90 | 0.88 | 5.58 | 7.17 | 81 |
I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.
The following plot shows every game on BGG plotted on the first two principal components of variation. I then highlight where the selected game and its nearest neighbors fall on these first two components.
Similarity scores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.
What are these components? The following plot shows which features contribute the most to each component.