1 Game Profile

1.1 Estimated Outcomes on BGG

This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.

Published	ID	Name	Type	UserRatings	Average	GeekRating	Weight
2022	328565	Caper: Europe	Current	765	8.12	6.27	2.23
			Estimated	400	7.34	5.83	2.01

To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.

1.2 Game Description

Description
Your role as criminal mastermind is to recruit a crew of thieves, send them to locations across Europe, and provide them with gear. It's your job to utilize your resources efficiently to steal goods, but being a great mastermind is about more than the things you walk away with. It's the thrill of a well thought-out plan coming together: the set-up, the sting. Properly deploy your thieves and gear to dominate locations, outmaneuver your opponent's plans, and win the night. You've got six rounds to plan and play your cards. Nothing like a tight timeline to up the stakes! Caper: Europe is a two-player drafting game. You take turns sending thieves to famous locations across Europe, vying for control through special card powers. These thieves have tricks up their sleeves, which you can enhance by adding gear to them. And controlling the locations isn't everything because priceless stolen goods await the thief who's clever enough to snatch them first. Your goal is to score the most points by winning locations, collecting stolen goods, and equipping thieves with their preferred gear. The mastermind with the most points, tallied at the end of six rounds, wins.

1.3 Game Information

Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.

For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/328565

1.4 Explaining Predictions

For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.

2 Finding Similar Games

What games are similar to Caper: Europe? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to Caper: Europe. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.

This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).

Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.

2.1 Most Similar Games

The table below displays games with the most similar data to Caper: Europe. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2022	328565	Caper: Europe	1.00	6.27	8.12	2.01	765
1	2017	232481	Zooloretto Duell	0.99	5.58	6.40	2.00	171
2	2016	205308	Jolly & Roger	0.93	5.74	6.78	1.69	417
3	2018	232824	Caper	0.93	6.04	7.14	2.12	900
4	2020	293678	Stellar	0.92	6.11	7.45	2.20	828
5	2015	161719	Rise of Cthulhu	0.92	5.58	6.53	1.67	190
6	2015	174078	Holmes: Sherlock & Mycroft	0.91	6.25	6.82	1.81	2,422
7	2016	178336	World's Fair 1893	0.89	6.61	7.18	2.00	3,542
8	2016	200834	Sola Fide: The Reformation	0.88	5.71	6.43	2.00	520
9	2020	274072	Omen: Heir to the Dunes	0.88	5.58	7.17		81
10	2015	173346	7 Wonders Duel	0.88	7.98	8.11	2.22	73,405
11	1997	263	Manitou	0.87	5.61	6.11	1.97	380
12	2019	286001	Dwar7s Duel	0.86	5.50	5.59		132
13	2017	224153	Cartouche Dynasties	0.85	5.53	7.33	2.00	30
14	2018	257440	Dungeon Duel	0.85	5.52	7.21	2.33	32
15	2012	122298	Morels	0.85	6.69	6.99	1.74	7,978
16	2009	54043	Jaipur	0.85	7.39	7.50	1.48	42,805
17	2015	187420	Quissama	0.85	5.55	7.25	2.64	79
18	2003	5795	Richelieu	0.85	5.90	6.58	1.91	1,060
19	2016	216497	聖杯サクセション (Throne and the Grail)	0.85	5.67	6.89	1.67	235
20	2019	286171	Gates of Delirium	0.85	5.64	7.05	2.00	190
21	2016	177248	Saga of the Northmen	0.84	5.63	7.28	2.42	155
22	2005	16253	Montanara	0.84	5.51	5.58	1.83	65
23	2016	193486	Neolithic	0.84	5.75	7.10	2.08	336
24	2015	175293	Trambahn	0.84	6.28	6.95	1.83	2,052
25	2016	195544	Tides of Madness	0.83	6.38	6.81	1.53	3,708

Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.

2.2 Most Similar, Highly Rated Games

What games are similar to Caper: Europe while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Score	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2022	328565	Caper: Europe	6.27	1.00	6.27	8.12	2.01	765
1	2015	173346	7 Wonders Duel	6.99	0.88	7.98	8.11	2.22	73,405
2	2009	54043	Jaipur	6.27	0.85	7.39	7.50	1.48	42,805
3	2016	178336	World's Fair 1893	5.87	0.89	6.61	7.18	2.00	3,542
4	2015	174078	Holmes: Sherlock & Mycroft	5.69	0.91	6.25	6.82	1.81	2,422
5	2012	122298	Morels	5.68	0.85	6.69	6.99	1.74	7,978
6	2020	293678	Stellar	5.65	0.92	6.11	7.45	2.20	828
7	2018	232824	Caper	5.59	0.93	6.04	7.14	2.12	900
8	2017	232481	Zooloretto Duell	5.55	0.99	5.58	6.40	2.00	171
9	2019	264241	Mandala	5.52	0.79	6.97	7.63	1.80	3,992
10	2016	205308	Jolly & Roger	5.34	0.93	5.74	6.78	1.69	417
11	2016	195544	Tides of Madness	5.31	0.83	6.38	6.81	1.53	3,708
12	2015	176229	Tides of Time	5.28	0.83	6.40	6.63	1.57	7,072
13	2015	175293	Trambahn	5.27	0.84	6.28	6.95	1.83	2,052
14	2017	230080	Majesty: For the Realm	5.24	0.79	6.60	6.97	1.73	5,742
15	2011	94104	Omen: A Reign of War	5.22	0.82	6.36	7.34	2.34	1,584
16	2015	161719	Rise of Cthulhu	5.12	0.92	5.58	6.53	1.67	190
17	2016	198525	Lotus	5.11	0.82	6.22	6.71	1.46	2,751
18	2018	246200	Piepmatz	5.10	0.81	6.33	7.12	2.08	1,871
19	2009	46255	Campaign Manager 2008	5.05	0.82	6.19	6.65	2.21	2,655
20	2016	200834	Sola Fide: The Reformation	5.05	0.88	5.71	6.43	2.00	520
21	2010	72991	Asara	5.03	0.78	6.42	7.00	2.35	2,746
22	2014	153065	Linko!	5.01	0.76	6.56	6.99	1.40	4,449
23	2003	5795	Richelieu	5.00	0.85	5.90	6.58	1.91	1,060
24	2018	248005	Ganymede	4.93	0.80	6.19	7.23	2.30	1,264
25	2020	274072	Omen: Heir to the Dunes	4.90	0.88	5.58	7.17		81

2.3 Why Are Games Considered Similar?

I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.

2.3.1 Plotting All Games

The following plot shows every game on BGG plotted on the first two principal components of variation. I then highlight where the selected game and its nearest neighbors fall on these first two components.

2.3.2 Game Profiles

Similarity scores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.

2.3.3 Examining Components

What are these components? The following plot shows which features contribute the most to each component.

Published	ID	Name	Publisher(s)	Designer(s)	Artist(s)	Categories	Families	Mechanics
2022	328565	Caper: Europe	Keymaster Games	Unai Rubio	Josh Emrich	Card Game	Continents: Europe	Area Majority / Influence
							Theme: Mystery / Crime	Open Drafting
							Components: Game Trayz Inside	Set Collection
							Crowdfunding: Kickstarter	Tug of War
							Players: Two Player Only Games

Individual Game Analysis